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The Graham formula proposes to calculate a company’s intrinsic value as: V ∗ = E P S × ( 8.5 + 2 g ) × 4.4 Y {\displaystyle V^{*}={\cfrac {\mathrm {EPS} \times (8.5+2g)\times 4.4}{Y}}} V ∗ {\displaystyle V^{*}} = the value expected from the growth formulas over the next 7 to 10 years
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He describes this as a simplified version of the strategy employed by Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger of Berkshire Hathaway. He touts the success of his magic formula in his book 'The Little Book that Beats the Market' (ISBN 0-471-73306-7 published 2005, revised 2010), stating it averaged a 17-year annual return of 30.8%. [1]
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For example, if a risk-free 10-year Treasury note is currently yielding 5% while junk bonds with the same duration are averaging 7%, then the spread between Treasuries and junk bonds is 2%. If that spread widens to 4% (increasing the junk bond yield to 9%), then the market is forecasting a greater risk of default, probably because of weaker ...
Example of the optimal Kelly betting fraction, versus expected return of other fractional bets. In probability theory, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet) is a formula for sizing a sequence of bets by maximizing the long-term expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the long-term expected geometric growth rate.
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For example, a bull spread constructed from calls (e.g., long a 50 call, short a 60 call) combined with a bear spread constructed from puts (e.g., long a 60 put, short a 50 put) has a constant payoff of the difference in exercise prices (e.g. 10) assuming that the underlying stock does not go ex-dividend before the expiration of the options.