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  2. Certainty effect - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Certainty_effect

    The certainty effect is the psychological effect resulting from the reduction of probability from certain to probable (Tversky & Kahneman 1986). It is an idea introduced in prospect theory .

  3. Allais paradox - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allais_paradox

    The zero effect is a slight adjustment to the certainty effect that states individuals will appeal to the lottery that doesn't have the possibility of winning nothing (aversion to zero). During prior Allais style tasks that involve two experiments with four lotteries, the only lottery without a possible outcome of zero was the zero-variance ...

  4. Pseudocertainty effect - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudocertainty_effect

    The evaluation of the certainty of the outcome in a previous stage of decisions is disregarded when selecting an option in subsequent stages. Not to be confused with certainty effect, the pseudocertainty effect was discovered from an attempt at providing a normative use of decision theory for the certainty effect by relaxing the cancellation ...

  5. Lottery (probability) - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lottery_(probability)

    The possible explanation for the above is that it has a ‘certainty effect’, that the outcomes without probabilities (determined in advance) will make a larger effect on the utility functions and final decisions. [5] In many cases, this focusing on the certainty may cause inconsistent decisions and preferences.

  6. Risk aversion - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_aversion

    The reflection effect (as well as the certainty effect) is inconsistent with the expected utility hypothesis. It is assumed that the psychological principle which stands behind this kind of behavior is the overweighting of certainty. Options which are perceived as certain are over-weighted relative to uncertain options.

  7. Statistical significance - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_significance

    [15] [16] But if the p-value of an observed effect is less than (or equal to) the significance level, an investigator may conclude that the effect reflects the characteristics of the whole population, [1] thereby rejecting the null hypothesis. [17] This technique for testing the statistical significance of results was developed in the early ...

  8. Overconfidence effect - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effect

    One manifestation of the overconfidence effect is the tendency to overestimate one's standing on a dimension of judgment or performance. This subsection of overconfidence focuses on the certainty one feels in their own ability, performance, level of control, or chance of success.

  9. Dunning–Kruger effect - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect

    Some researchers include a metacognitive component in their definition. In this view, the Dunning–Kruger effect is the thesis that those who are incompetent in a given area tend to be ignorant of their incompetence, i.e., they lack the metacognitive ability to become aware of their incompetence.