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Predictive modelling uses statistics to predict outcomes. [1] Most often the event one wants to predict is in the future, but predictive modelling can be applied to any type of unknown event, regardless of when it occurred. For example, predictive models are often used to detect crimes and identify suspects, after the crime has taken place. [2]
Predictive analytics is a set of business intelligence (BI) technologies that uncovers relationships and patterns within large volumes of data that can be used to predict behavior and events. Unlike other BI technologies, predictive analytics is forward-looking, using past events to anticipate the future. [ 3 ]
The basic form of a linear predictor function () for data point i (consisting of p explanatory variables), for i = 1, ..., n, is = + + +,where , for k = 1, ..., p, is the value of the k-th explanatory variable for data point i, and , …, are the coefficients (regression coefficients, weights, etc.) indicating the relative effect of a particular explanatory variable on the outcome.
Logistic regression is used in various fields, including machine learning, most medical fields, and social sciences. For example, the Trauma and Injury Severity Score (), which is widely used to predict mortality in injured patients, was originally developed by Boyd et al. using logistic regression. [6]
Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared with what actually happens. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual results creating a variance actual analysis.
Probability theory or probability calculus is the branch of mathematics concerned with probability.Although there are several different probability interpretations, probability theory treats the concept in a rigorous mathematical manner by expressing it through a set of axioms.
In a non-statistical sense, the term "prediction" is often used to refer to an informed guess or opinion.. A prediction of this kind might be informed by a predicting person's abductive reasoning, inductive reasoning, deductive reasoning, and experience; and may be useful—if the predicting person is a knowledgeable person in the field.
In mathematics, a function is a rule for taking an input (in the simplest case, a number or set of numbers) [5] and providing an output (which may also be a number). [5] A symbol that stands for an arbitrary input is called an independent variable, while a symbol that stands for an arbitrary output is called a dependent variable. [6]