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The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated PVI or CPVI, is a measurement of how partisan a U.S. congressional district or U.S. state is. [1] This partisanship is indicated as lean towards either the Republican Party or the Democratic Party, [2] compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections.
Nebraska is the only U.S. state with a unicameral legislature; half of the seats of the Nebraska Legislature were up for election in 2024. Nebraska is also unique in that its legislature is officially non-partisan and holds non-partisan elections, although the Democratic and Republican parties each endorse legislative candidates.
The logo was replaced, with the name 538 now used instead of FiveThirtyEight. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, [538 1] was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver.
On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...
As of Oct. 17 at 10:30 a.m. Eastern, Harris leads Trump 48.1 percent to 47.5 percent in 538’s polling average of the state — virtually the same margin Democrats won the state by in 2020.
Note: The partisan lean of districts is calculated based on voting data from national and local elections from 2016 to 2022. Districts with less than 5% difference in Republican and Democratic ...
Lean R Likely R Very Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Michigan: 15 Nov 5 09:00 pm R+1: 50.6% D 2.78% Tossup Tossup Likely D Lean D Tossup Tossup Lean D Likely D Minnesota: 10 Nov 5 09:00 pm D+1: 52.4% D 7.11% Lean D Likely D Solid D Likely D Lean D Lean D Likely D Likely D NE–01 [a] 1 Nov 5 09:00 pm R+9 [b] 56.0% R [b] 14. ...
Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...