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Uncertainty quantification intends to explicitly express both types of uncertainty separately. The quantification for the aleatoric uncertainties can be relatively straightforward, where traditional (frequentist) probability is the most basic form. Techniques such as the Monte Carlo method are frequently used.
Conformal prediction (CP) is a machine learning framework for uncertainty quantification that produces statistically valid prediction regions (prediction intervals) for any underlying point predictor (whether statistical, machine, or deep learning) only assuming exchangeability of the data. CP works by computing nonconformity scores on ...
Identify the model output to be analysed (the target of interest should ideally have a direct relation to the problem tackled by the model). Run the model a number of times using some design of experiments, [15] dictated by the method of choice and the input uncertainty. Using the resulting model outputs, calculate the sensitivity measures of ...
Model selection may also refer to the problem of selecting a few representative models from a large set of computational models for the purpose of decision making or optimization under uncertainty. [2] In machine learning, algorithmic approaches to model selection include feature selection, hyperparameter optimization, and statistical learning ...
Monte Carlo methods are mainly used in three distinct problem classes: optimization, numerical integration, and generating draws from a probability distribution. They can also be used to model phenomena with significant uncertainty in inputs, such as calculating the risk of a nuclear power plant failure.
A machine learning model is a type of ... machine learning techniques have been used to improve the ... is a general framework for reasoning with uncertainty, ...
In statistics and machine learning, the bias–variance tradeoff describes the relationship between a model's complexity, the accuracy of its predictions, and how well it can make predictions on previously unseen data that were not used to train the model. In general, as we increase the number of tunable parameters in a model, it becomes more ...
Model uncertainty arises due to the limitations of the forecast model. The process of representing the atmosphere in a computer model involves many simplifications such as the development of parametrisation schemes, which introduce errors into the forecast. Several techniques to represent model uncertainty have been proposed.