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The Makridakis Competitions (also known as the M Competitions or M-Competitions) are a series of open competitions to evaluate and compare the accuracy of different time series forecasting methods. They are organized by teams led by forecasting researcher Spyros Makridakis and were first held in 1982. [1] [2] [3] [4]
Kaggle is a data science competition platform and online community for data scientists and machine learning practitioners under Google LLC.Kaggle enables users to find and publish datasets, explore and build models in a web-based data science environment, work with other data scientists and machine learning engineers, and enter competitions to solve data science challenges.
The Chow test (Chinese: 鄒檢定), proposed by econometrician Gregory Chow in 1960, is a statistical test of whether the true coefficients in two linear regressions on different data sets are equal. In econometrics, it is most commonly used in time series analysis to test for the presence of a structural break at a period which can be assumed ...
There are two main uses of the term calibration in statistics that denote special types of statistical inference problems. Calibration can mean a reverse process to regression, where instead of a future dependent variable being predicted from known explanatory variables, a known observation of the dependent variables is used to predict a corresponding explanatory variable; [1]
The Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom) is a competition conducted by a team led by Dr. Tao Hong that invites submissions around the world for forecasting energy demand. [1] GEFCom was first held in 2012 on Kaggle , [ 2 ] and the second GEFCom was held in 2014 on CrowdANALYTIX.
It is a measure used to evaluate the performance of regression or forecasting models. It is a variant of MAPE in which the mean absolute percent errors is treated as a weighted arithmetic mean. Most commonly the absolute percent errors are weighted by the actuals (e.g. in case of sales forecasting, errors are weighted by sales volume). [3]
The tracking signal also can be used directly as a variable smoothing constant. [ 2 ] There have also been proposed methods for adjusting the smoothing constants used in forecasting methods based on some measure of prior performance of the forecasting model.
A hinge function is defined by a variable and a knot, so to add a new basis function, MARS must search over all combinations of the following: 1) existing terms (called parent terms in this context) 2) all variables (to select one for the new basis function) 3) all values of each variable (for the knot of the new hinge function).