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With the 2024 presidential election a week away, 538’s Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss the relevancy of early voting data. October 29, 2024. The 2024 election could hinge on Pennsylvania. Our final deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
This is an electoral map based on the Kalshi prediction market odds for the 2024 presidential election. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the market likelihood of winning increases: Toss-up (<60%), Leans (60%+), Likely (80%+), Safe (95%+). The final update for this map on 270toWin will ...
The Final Forecast. Entering Election Day, Donald Trump is a slight favorite to win the 2024 election, though the outcome is effectively a toss-up. Neither candidate is clearly favored in enough states to secure the 270 electoral votes needed, with Trump currently at 219 and Harris at 226, and 93 votes dispersed across seven “tossup” states.
It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter. Use the buttons below the map to share your forecast or embed it into a web page. Customize your ...
Kamala Harris moved into a narrow lead in our final update, with her chance of winning rising from 50% to 56%. With no time left before the election, our model reacts sharply to the latest data ...
Correction: Sept. 12, 2024. An earlier version of a chart showing projections if the polls changed or missed in Donald Trump’s favor misstated the number of electoral votes that would be won by ...
Each prediction uses the same amount of shrinkage, and was generated solely using data from elections other than the one being projected—just as we will need to predict the results from 2024 ...
This further supports the prediction that the state will vote Republican in the 2024 presidential election. In summary, based on historical trends, current polling data, and the state’s recent political leanings, it is highly probable that Arkansas will vote for the Republican nominee, Donald Trump, in the 2024 presidential election.
Live Presidential Forecast. We stopped updating these forecasts at 5:45 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, Nov. 6, after the election was called for Donald Trump. These graphics and estimates will no ...
Text. Control of the House, the Senate and the presidency are all up for grabs in the 2024 elections, a rare instance of Republicans and Democrats battling for all three levers of elected power in ...