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That poll ended up being wrong, as Trump is currently holding onto a 13-point lead in the state, but other Iowa pollsters got it much closer, pegging Trump’s winning margin in the high single ...
Tarrance claims that The Field Poll speculated, without supplying supporting data, in offering the Bradley effect theory as an explanation for why its polling had failed, and he attributes the emergence of the Bradley effect theory to media outlets focusing on this, while ignoring that there were other conflicting polls which had been correct ...
Polls today consistently show a tight race, and those in the polling profession say now they’ll be under the microscope. “We’re understandably requiring more precision because the stakes ...
The poll was seen as a likely outlier at the time — but even so, its miss is notable: Trump ended up winning the state by 13 points. Selzer said after the election that she’s reviewing the ...
Pollsters systematically underestimated President Trump’s support — again. And this time, they missed by an even bigger margin than in 2016.
Buoying the wave of assumptions were two polls released over the weekend showing Harris in a dominant position — one, the J. Ann Selzer-run Des Moines Register poll, showed the vice president ...
The Republicans attacked him for being inexperienced, [23] and McCain got a temporary bump in the polls after choosing Sarah Palin as his vice-presidential nominee. The financial crisis allowed Obama to open a consistent, comfortable lead in the polls at the beginning of October, however, and he won the election by a comfortable margin. [4]
The polls-only model relied only on polls from a particular state, while the polls-plus model was based on state polls, national polls and endorsements. For each contest, FiveThirtyEight produced probability distributions and average expected vote shares according to both models.