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The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated PVI or CPVI, is a measurement of how partisan a U.S. congressional district or U.S. state is. [1] This partisanship is indicated as lean towards either the Republican Party or the Democratic Party, [2] compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections.
Lean R Likely R Very Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Michigan: 15 Nov 5 09:00 pm R+1: 50.6% D 2.78% Tossup Tossup Likely D Lean D Tossup Tossup Lean D Likely D Minnesota: 10 Nov 5 09:00 pm D+1: 52.4% D 7.11% Lean D Likely D Solid D Likely D Lean D Lean D Likely D Likely D NE–01 [a] 1 Nov 5 09:00 pm R+9 [b] 56.0% R [b] 14. ...
Partisan lean of U.S. states according to Gallup polling [6] Number of U.S. States Year Solid Dem Lean Dem Competitive Lean GOP Solid GOP Net Dem 2008 29 6 10 1 4 +30 2009 23 10 12 1 4 +28 2010 13 9 18 5 5 +12 2011 11 7 15 7 10 +1 2012 13 6 19 3 9 +7 2013 12 5 19 2 12 +3 2014 11 6 18 5 10 +2 2015 11 3 16 8 12 −6 2016 13 1 15 7 14 −7 2017 15 ...
On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...
You can check which is which by looking them up on 538's pollster ratings page. If a pollster has a 3.0 rating, you should take it pretty seriously; if it has a 0.5 rating, it's not very reliable ...
These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI) is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.
As of Oct. 17 at 10:30 a.m. Eastern, Harris leads Trump 48.1 percent to 47.5 percent in 538’s polling average of the state — virtually the same margin Democrats won the state by in 2020.
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