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Similarly, business failures and stock market prices tend to be countercyclical. In finance, an asset that tends to do well while the economy as a whole is doing poorly is referred to as countercyclical, and could be for example a business or a financial instrument whose value is derived from sales of an inferior good.
Real macroeconomic output can be decomposed into a trend and a cyclical part, where the variance of the cyclical series derived from the filtering technique (e.g., the band-pass filter, or the most commonly used Hodrick–Prescott filter) serves as the primary measure of departure from economic stability.
Real business-cycle theory (RBC theory) is a class of new classical macroeconomics models in which business-cycle fluctuations are accounted for by real, in contrast to nominal, shocks. [1] RBC theory sees business cycle fluctuations as the efficient response to exogenous changes in the real economic environment.
Some sources argue identifying any such patterns as a "cycle" is a misnomer, because of their non-cyclical nature. [1] Economists using efficient-market hypothesis say that asset prices reflect all available information meaning that it is impossible to systematically beat the market by taking advantage of such cycles.
Total payroll employment is at a record 159.3 million jobs, up 7 million from the prepandemic high. The unemployment rate — that is, the number of workers who identify as unemployed as a ...
Business cycles are a type of fluctuation found in the aggregate economic activity of nations that organize their work mainly in business enterprises: a cycle consists of expansions occurring at about the same time in many economic activities, followed by similarly general recessions, contractions, and revivals which merge into the expansion ...
The economy moves in a cyclical fashion in four major stages — expansion, peak, contraction and trough. For cyclical stocks, this can mean great outperformance in times of expansion.
A jump in the unemployment rate to 4.3% in July from 3.7% at the start of the year saw the U.S. central bank kicking off its policy easing cycle with an unusually large half-percentage-point ...