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ECMWF aims to provide accurate medium-range global weather forecasts out to 15 days and seasonal forecasts out to 12 months. [11] Its products are provided to the national weather services of its member states and co-operating states as a complement to their national short-range and climatological activities, and those national states use ECMWF's products for their own national duties, in ...
The 51-member ensemble system "ENS" is also run every twelve hours out to 15 days and every 06Z/18Z out to 6 days with a horizontal resolution of 18 km and 137 layers in the vertical. The ECMWF also runs a coarser version of the IFS out 45 days; this version is run weekly, with output in five-day intervals.
Surface pressure forecasts are issued three times per day, with temperature and probability of precipitation products issued twice per day, using guidance from the NWS medium range forecast model (GFS) as well as models from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), the United Kingdom's Meteorology Office (UKMET ...
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An example of a forecast product from the GFS, in this case a 96-hour forecast of 850 mb geopotential height and temperature. The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States' National Weather Service (NWS).
The ensemble forecast is usually evaluated by comparing the ensemble average of the individual forecasts for one forecast variable to the observed value of that variable (the "error"). This is combined with consideration of the degree of agreement between various forecasts within the ensemble system, as represented by their overall standard ...
The global models are run outwards to varying times into the future. The UKMET Unified Model is run six days into the future, [16] the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model is run out to 10 days into the future, [17] while the Global Forecast System model run by the Environmental Modeling Center is run 16 days into the future ...