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P(A|B) may or may not be equal to P(A), i.e., the unconditional probability or absolute probability of A. If P(A|B) = P(A), then events A and B are said to be independent: in such a case, knowledge about either event does not alter the likelihood of each other. P(A|B) (the conditional probability of A given B) typically differs from P(B|A).
For simplicity in the algebraic formulation ahead, let a = b = t = 2l such that the original result in Buffon's problem is P(A) = P(B) = 1 / π . Furthermore, let N = 100 drops. Now let us examine P(AB) for Laplace's result, that is, the probability the needle intersects both a horizontal and a vertical line. We know that
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Then the unconditional probability that = is 3/6 = 1/2 (since there are six possible rolls of the dice, of which three are even), whereas the probability that = conditional on = is 1/3 (since there are three possible prime number rolls—2, 3, and 5—of which one is even).
The first column sum is the probability that x =0 and y equals any of the values it can have – that is, the column sum 6/9 is the marginal probability that x=0. If we want to find the probability that y=0 given that x=0, we compute the fraction of the probabilities in the x=0 column that have the value y=0, which is 4/9 ÷
A tree diagram may represent a series of independent events (such as a set of coin flips) or conditional probabilities (such as drawing cards from a deck, without replacing the cards). [1] Each node on the diagram represents an event and is associated with the probability of that event.
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