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When the model has been estimated over all available data with none held back, the MSPE of the model over the entire population of mostly unobserved data can be estimated as follows.
It is calculated as the sum of squares of the prediction residuals for those observations. [ 1 ] [ 2 ] [ 3 ] Specifically, the PRESS statistic is an exhaustive form of cross-validation , as it tests all the possible ways that the original data can be divided into a training and a validation set.
The MSE either assesses the quality of a predictor (i.e., a function mapping arbitrary inputs to a sample of values of some random variable), or of an estimator (i.e., a mathematical function mapping a sample of data to an estimate of a parameter of the population from which the data is sampled).
Any non-linear differentiable function, (,), of two variables, and , can be expanded as + +. If we take the variance on both sides and use the formula [11] for the variance of a linear combination of variables (+) = + + (,), then we obtain | | + | | +, where is the standard deviation of the function , is the standard deviation of , is the standard deviation of and = is the ...
In statistics, a sum of squares due to lack of fit, or more tersely a lack-of-fit sum of squares, is one of the components of a partition of the sum of squares of residuals in an analysis of variance, used in the numerator in an F-test of the null hypothesis that says that a proposed model fits well.
The general regression model with n observations and k explanators, the first of which is a constant unit vector whose coefficient is the regression intercept, is = + where y is an n × 1 vector of dependent variable observations, each column of the n × k matrix X is a vector of observations on one of the k explanators, is a k × 1 vector of true coefficients, and e is an n× 1 vector of the ...
The RMSD of predicted values ^ for times t of a regression's dependent variable, with variables observed over T times, is computed for T different predictions as the square root of the mean of the squares of the deviations:
In practice, with roundoff errors of random signs, the root mean square errors of pairwise summation actually grow as (). [9] Another alternative is to use arbitrary-precision arithmetic, which in principle need no rounding at all with a cost of much greater computational effort. A way of performing correctly rounded sums using arbitrary ...