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A 2008 survey by the Future of Humanity Institute estimated a 5% probability of extinction by super-intelligence by 2100. [19] Eliezer Yudkowsky believes risks from artificial intelligence are harder to predict than any other known risks due to bias from anthropomorphism. Since people base their judgments of artificial intelligence on their own ...
Risk is the lack of certainty about the outcome of making a particular choice. Statistically, the level of downside risk can be calculated as the product of the probability that harm occurs (e.g., that an accident happens) multiplied by the severity of that harm (i.e., the average amount of harm or more conservatively the maximum credible amount of harm).
The certainty effect is the psychological effect resulting from the reduction of probability from certain to probable (Tversky & Kahneman 1986). It is an idea introduced in prospect theory .
The negative effects of normalcy bias can be combated through the four stages of disaster response: [18] preparation, including publicly acknowledging the possibility of disaster and forming contingency plans. warning, including issuing clear, unambiguous, and frequent warnings and helping the public to understand and believe them.
This is the same as saying that the probability of event {1,2,3,4,6} is 5/6. This event encompasses the possibility of any number except five being rolled. The mutually exclusive event {5} has a probability of 1/6, and the event {1,2,3,4,5,6} has a probability of 1, that is, absolute certainty.
An individual that is risk averse has a certainty equivalent that is smaller than the prediction of uncertain gains. The risk premium is the difference between the expected value and the certainty equivalent. For risk-averse individuals, risk premium is positive, for risk-neutral persons it is zero, and for risk-loving individuals their risk ...
In Bayesian terms, this response to the doomsday argument says that our knowledge of history (or ability to prevent disaster) produces a prior marginal for N with a minimum value in the trillions. If N is distributed uniformly from 10 12 to 10 13, for example, then the probability of N < 1,200 billion inferred from n = 60
In expected utility theory, a lottery is a discrete distribution of probability on a set of states of nature.The elements of a lottery correspond to the probabilities that each of the states of nature will occur, (e.g. Rain: 0.70, No Rain: 0.30). [1]