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[1] [2] Gallup polling has often been accurate in predicting the outcome of presidential elections and the margin of victory for the winner. [3] However, it missed some close elections: 1948, 1976 and 2004, the popular vote in 2000, and the likely-voter numbers in 2012. [ 3 ]
Public Policy Polling (PPP) is an American polling firm affiliated with the Democratic Party. [1] [2] [3] Founded in 2001 by businessman Dean Debnam, the firm is based in Raleigh, North Carolina. Debnam currently serves as president and CEO of PPP, while Tom Jensen serves as the firm's director. [4]
On June 6, 2010, FiveThirtyEight posted pollster rankings that updated and elaborated Silver's efforts from the 2008 election. Silver expanded the database to more than 4,700 election polls and developed a model for rating the polls that was more sophisticated than his original rankings.
W. Joseph Campbell is a professor emeritus at American University in Washington, D.C., and author of seven books, including most recently, “Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential ...
John Zogby was the star pollster of presidential elections in 1996 and 2000, ... The pre-election polls of 2008 were quite accurate, overall, in pegging Barack Obama’s general-election victory ...
Slate magazine and The Wall Street Journal reported that Rasmussen Reports was one of the most accurate polling firms for the 2004 United States presidential election and 2006 United States general elections. [48] [92] [failed verification] In 2004 Slate "publicly doubted and privately derided" Rasmussen's use of recorded voices in electoral polls.
In four of these states, the average margin between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in the polls is less than 1 percentage point.
The Electoral College's electors then formally elect the president and vice president. [2] [3] The Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution (1804) provides the procedure by which the president and vice president are elected; electors vote separately for each office. Previously, electors cast two votes for president, and the winner ...