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Statistician Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight maintains a list of pollsters who conduct surveys in U.S. political elections and assigns each pollster a rating based on its methodology and historical accuracy. [9] Silver also lists the number of polls analyzed for each pollster. [9] Cygnal [10] [11] [12] Elway Research; Emerson College Polling [13]
Chart of Democratic-candidate lead over Republican candidate in final poll and results by year, 1936 to 2016. Gallup was the first polling organization to conduct accurate opinion polling for United States presidential elections.
It currently holds a 3-star rating from FiveThirtyEight, their highest possible rating for a pollster, based on measurements of error, bias, and transparency in methodology. As of 2024, FiveThirtyEight describes The New York Times/Siena College Poll as the most accurate pollster in America. [24] [25]
After the 2020 election, a year in which America's pollsters faced their worst performance since 1980, the American Association of Public Opinion Research (the professional society for pollsters ...
800-290-4726 more ways to reach us. Sign in. Mail. 24/7 Help. ... the most accurate polls since 1998 have been national polls. ... the bigger the population, the easier it is for a pollster to get ...
J. Ann Selzer (born 1956) is an American political pollster and the president of the Des Moines, Iowa-based polling firm Selzer & Company, which she founded in 1996. [1] [2] She was described as "the best pollster in politics" by Clare Malone of FiveThirtyEight, which also gives Selzer & Company a rare A+ grade for accuracy.
Citing Brazil-based polling company AtlasIntel, which bills itself as the "most-accurate" pollster in 2020, Trump said he is leading in all seven battleground states.
The "average" of polls over an extended period (perhaps several weeks) would neither reveal the true state of voter preferences at the present time, nor provide an accurate forecast of the future. One approach to this problem was followed by Pollster.com: if enough polls were available, it computed a locally weighted moving average or LOESS.