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In equation above, positive post-test probability is calculated using the likelihood ratio positive, and the negative post-test probability is calculated using the likelihood ratio negative. Odds are converted to probabilities as follows: [18]
Interpreting negative log-probability as information content or surprisal, the support (log-likelihood) of a model, given an event, is the negative of the surprisal of the event, given the model: a model is supported by an event to the extent that the event is unsurprising, given the model.
The negative predictive value is defined as: = + = where a "true negative" is the event that the test makes a negative prediction, and the subject has a negative result under the gold standard, and a "false negative" is the event that the test makes a negative prediction, and the subject has a positive result under the gold standard.
In statistics, the likelihood-ratio test is a hypothesis test that involves comparing the goodness of fit of two competing statistical models, typically one found by maximization over the entire parameter space and another found after imposing some constraint, based on the ratio of their likelihoods.
Diagram relating pre- and post-test probabilities, with the green curve (upper left half) representing a positive test, and the red curve (lower right half) representing a negative test, for the case of 90% sensitivity and 90% specificity, corresponding to a likelihood ratio positive of 9, and a likelihood ratio negative of 0.111.
Specificity (true negative rate) is the probability of a negative test result, conditioned on the individual truly being negative. If the true status of the condition cannot be known, sensitivity and specificity can be defined relative to a "gold standard test" which is assumed correct.
Complementarily, the false negative rate (FNR) is the proportion of positives which yield negative test outcomes with the test, i.e., the conditional probability of a negative test result given that the condition being looked for is present. In statistical hypothesis testing, this fraction is given the letter β.
In variational Bayesian methods, the evidence lower bound (often abbreviated ELBO, also sometimes called the variational lower bound [1] or negative variational free energy) is a useful lower bound on the log-likelihood of some observed data.