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Meanwhile, our model reckons Harris needs to win the popular vote by 2.1 points to be favored to win the election because swing states are more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole.
Looking at 538’s forecast, the most likely tipping-point state across all scenarios for the 2024 election is Pennsylvania. In 18 out of 100 cases, the Keystone State provides the winning ...
Forecasts by 538 and Decision Desk HQ/The Hill have been suspended since Biden withdrew from the race, but Silver Bulletin’s model on Aug. 18 suggests Harris has a 53.5% chance of winning in ...
The UK election was the first time the FiveThirtyEight team did an election night 'liveblog' of a non-U.S. election. [538 37] In April 2010, The Guardian published Silver's predictions for the 2010 United Kingdom General Election. The majority of polling organisations in the UK use the concept of uniform swing to predict the outcome of elections.
This is a list of nationwide public opinion polls that were conducted relating to the general election for the 2024 United ... Harris +1.2%: 538 [2] through November ...
Here’s what the latest polls say about the 2024 presidential election, from The Independent’s data correspondent ... collated by FiveThirtyEight, shows Harris with a 2.6-point lead over Trump ...
According to realclearpolling.com, Harris now has a 49.4% chance to win November's election while Trump comes in at 49.3%. And now they're split across the board.
Harris has 49 percent of the vote and Trump 48 percent, according to the poll, which was taken in the first two weeks of October. This close race is also reflected in the swing states.