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Meanwhile, our model reckons Harris needs to win the popular vote by 2.1 points to be favored to win the election because swing states are more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole.
The result is that Harris would win with 270 electoral votes. (Amina Brown for 538.) According to the Swing-O-Matic, if Harris improves upon Biden’s margin among white voters by only 2-3 points ...
This year, thanks to her stronger standing in state polls than in national ones, our forecast thinks Harris needs to win the national popular vote by only about 2.1 points in order to be favored ...
On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...
"Kamala Harris had been as short as 20/21 yesterday to win November's vote, however those odds have drifted out to 21/20 following the vice president debate overnight," Rosbottom said.
Far from suggesting that Harris has this race “in the bag,” the data indicates that Trump may, in fact, be in a much stronger position than the topline, national numbers suggest.
A separate Washington Post/Schar School megapoll (of 5,000 registered voters) has Harris just 1 point ahead of Trump. Harris has 49 percent of the vote and Trump 48 percent, according to the poll ...
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are virtually tied in the two states that are likely to decide the 2024 election, according to a poll.