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According to 538's analysis of polls conducted in competitive states* in which over 95 percent of the expected vote was counted as of Nov. 8 at 6 a.m. Eastern, the average poll conducted over the ...
[538 30] Following a number of preview posts in January [538 31] and February, [538 32] Renard Sexton examined subjects such as the UK polling industry [538 33] [538 34] [538 35] and the 'surge' of the third-party Liberal Democrats, [538 36] while Silver, Sexton and Dan Berman [b] developed a seat projection model.
You can check which is which by looking them up on 538's pollster ratings page. If a pollster has a 3.0 rating, you should take it pretty seriously; if it has a 0.5 rating, it's not very reliable ...
Following Republican President-elect Donald Trump's resounding victory in this month's election, some U.S. pollsters are scrambling to understand why their surveys once again underestimated his ...
538 appears to be the most comprehensive analysis of polling and uses more metrics than simply bias and accuracy. Being owned by a WP:RS (ABC) also helps. Silver's analysis is a blog post focusing on fewer pollsters with fewer variables, not a comprehensive updated ranking.
As of March 2022, the polling analysis website FiveThirtyEight led by statistician Nate Silver, had 120 Monmouth polls in its database, and gave the polling institute an "A" grade on the basis of its historical accuracy and methodology. [2] The poll appeared on the list in 2014 with an A-minus, and received an A-plus in 2016, 2018 and 2020.
Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...