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According to 538's analysis of polls conducted in competitive states* in which over 95 percent of the expected vote was counted as of Nov. 8 at 6 a.m. Eastern, the average poll conducted over the ...
[538 30] Following a number of preview posts in January [538 31] and February, [538 32] Renard Sexton examined subjects such as the UK polling industry [538 33] [538 34] [538 35] and the 'surge' of the third-party Liberal Democrats, [538 36] while Silver, Sexton and Dan Berman [b] developed a seat projection model.
One question that we sometimes get is whether polling averages like 538's are biased toward Trump because of the influx of polls conducted by Republican-aligned firms.
Polling experts told Reuters they remain unsure of why polls underestimate Trump, who has railed against polls as biased against him throughout his political career.
538 appears to be the most comprehensive analysis of polling and uses more metrics than simply bias and accuracy. Being owned by a WP:RS (ABC) also helps. Silver's analysis is a blog post focusing on fewer pollsters with fewer variables, not a comprehensive updated ranking.
2. Check who sponsored the poll. On 538's polls page, we note not only the polling firm that conducted the poll, but also (if applicable) the sponsor who paid for it. Oftentimes, these will be ...
As of September 2020, the polling analysis website FiveThirtyEight, led by statistician Nate Silver, had 88 Suffolk polls in its database, and gave the polling center an "A" grade on the basis of its historical accuracy and methodology, and listed the pollster as having 80% accuracy record in calling races. [10]
On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...