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Statistical Football prediction is a method used in sports betting, to predict the outcome of football matches by means of statistical tools. The goal of statistical match prediction is to outperform the predictions of bookmakers [citation needed][dubious – discuss], who use them to set odds on the outcome of football matches.
Pythagorean expectation is a sports analytics formula devised by Bill James to estimate the percentage of games a baseball team "should" have won based on the number of runs they scored and allowed. Comparing a team's actual and Pythagorean winning percentage can be used to make predictions and evaluate which teams are over-performing and under ...
It was proposed by Glenn W. Brier in 1950. [ 1] The Brier score can be thought of as a cost function. More precisely, across all items in a set of N predictions, the Brier score measures the mean squared difference between: The predicted probability assigned to the possible outcomes for item i. The actual outcome.
Expected goals. In association football, expected goals ( xG) is a performance metric used to evaluate team and player performances. [ 1] It can be used to represent the probability of a scoring opportunity that may result in a goal. [ 2] It is also used in ice hockey. [ 3][ 4][ 5]
In decision theory, a scoring rule[ 1] provides evaluation metrics for probabilistic predictions or forecasts. While "regular" loss functions (such as mean squared error) assign a goodness-of-fit score to a predicted value and an observed value, scoring rules assign such a score to a predicted probability distribution and an observed value.
The sum of squares of residuals, also called the residual sum of squares: The total sum of squares (proportional to the variance of the data): The most general definition of the coefficient of determination is. In the best case, the modeled values exactly match the observed values, which results in and R2 = 1.
Football Power Index (abbreviated as FPI) is a predictive rating system developed by ESPN that measures team strength and uses it to forecast game and season results in American football. Each team's FPI rating is composed of predictive offensive, defensive, and special teams value, as measured by a function of expected points added (EPA).
The positive predictive value (PPV), or precision, is defined as = + = where a "true positive" is the event that the test makes a positive prediction, and the subject has a positive result under the gold standard, and a "false positive" is the event that the test makes a positive prediction, and the subject has a negative result under the gold standard.
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