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Latest updates. 538’s final forecast for the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is officially out, and it’s a real nail-biter. Our model gives Harris a 50 out of 100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes.
An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read more about the methodology.
Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.
No Electoral College majority, House decides election. See the Senate forecast. * This is FiveThirtyEight’s best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements.
Nate Silver founded and was the editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. He is the author of “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don’t.”. Apr. 25, 2023.
95% OF AVERAGES PROJECTED TO FALL IN THIS RANGE. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read the full methodology here.
His lead is larger than Clinton’s in every battleground state, and more than double her lead nationally. Our model forecasts Biden to win the popular vote by 8 percentage points, 1 more than ...
The Senate is more competitive. By Nate Silver. Nov. 8, 2022, at 2:20 AM. ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. When we launched our midterms forecast on June 30, Republicans had a 53 ...
If each party holds 50 seats after the 2022 election, Democrats will control the Senate. * This is FiveThirtyEight’s best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements.
Final FiveThirtyEight presidential forecast and final Deluxe version of our congressional forecasts as of Nov. 3, 2020, versus actual results