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Interest rate parity takes on two distinctive forms: uncovered interest rate parity refers to the parity condition in which exposure to foreign exchange risk (unanticipated changes in exchange rates) is uninhibited, whereas covered interest rate parity refers to the condition in which a forward contract has been used to cover (eliminate ...
The formal model underlying the hypothesis is the uncovered Interest Rate Parity condition which states that in absence of a risk premium, arbitrage will ensure that the depreciation or appreciation of a country's currency vis-à-vis another will be equal to the nominal interest rate differential between them. Since under a peg, i.e. a fixed ...
The forward exchange rate is determined by a parity relationship among the spot exchange rate and differences in interest rates between two countries, which reflects an economic equilibrium in the foreign exchange market under which arbitrage opportunities are eliminated. When in equilibrium, and when interest rates vary across two countries ...
The effect estimates future exchange rates based on the relationship between nominal interest rates. Multiplying the current spot exchange rate by the nominal annual U.S. interest rate and dividing by the nominal annual U.K. interest rate yields the estimate of the spot exchange rate 12 months from now:
For example, consider that an investor with US$5,000,000 is considering whether to invest abroad using an uncovered interest arbitrage strategy or to invest domestically. The dollar deposit interest rate is 3.4% in the United States, while the euro deposit rate is 4.6% in the euro area. The current spot exchange rate is 1.2730 $/€.
In a system of fixed exchange rates, central banks announce an exchange rate (the parity rate) at which they are prepared to buy or sell any amount of domestic currency. Thus net payments flows into or out of the country need not equal zero; the exchange rate e is exogenously given, while the variable BoP is endogenous.
The key features of the model include the assumptions that goods' prices are sticky, or slow to change, in the short run, but the prices of currencies are flexible, that arbitrage in asset markets holds, via the uncovered interest parity equation, and that expectations of exchange rate changes are "consistent": that is, rational.
Interest rate level: Interest rates are the cost and profit of borrowing capital. When a country raises its interest rate or its domestic interest rate is higher than the foreign interest rate, it will cause capital inflow, thereby increasing the demand for domestic currency, allowing the currency to appreciate and the foreign exchange depreciate.