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In null-hypothesis significance testing, the p-value [note 1] is the probability of obtaining test results at least as extreme as the result actually observed, under the assumption that the null hypothesis is correct. [2] [3] A very small p-value means that such an extreme observed outcome would be very unlikely under the null hypothesis.
To determine whether a result is statistically significant, a researcher calculates a p-value, which is the probability of observing an effect of the same magnitude or more extreme given that the null hypothesis is true. [5] [12] The null hypothesis is rejected if the p-value is less than (or equal to) a predetermined level, .
The p-value does not provide the probability that either the null hypothesis or its opposite is correct (a common source of confusion). [ 36 ] If the p -value is less than the chosen significance threshold (equivalently, if the observed test statistic is in the critical region), then we say the null hypothesis is rejected at the chosen level of ...
The p-value was introduced by Karl Pearson [6] in the Pearson's chi-squared test, where he defined P (original notation) as the probability that the statistic would be at or above a given level. This is a one-tailed definition, and the chi-squared distribution is asymmetric, only assuming positive or zero values, and has only one tail, the ...
The t-test p-value for the difference in means, and the regression p-value for the slope, are both 0.00805. The methods give identical results. This example shows that, for the special case of a simple linear regression where there is a single x-variable that has values 0 and 1, the t-test gives the same results as the linear regression. The ...
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In general, if an increase of x percent is followed by a decrease of x percent, and the initial amount was p, the final amount is p (1 + 0.01 x)(1 − 0.01 x) = p (1 − (0.01 x) 2); hence the net change is an overall decrease by x percent of x percent (the square of the original percent change when expressed as a decimal number).
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