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The tempest prognosticator, also known as the leech barometer, is a 19th-century invention by George Merryweather in which leeches are used in a barometer. The twelve leeches are kept in small bottles inside the device; when they become agitated by an approaching storm, they attempt to climb out of the bottles and trigger a small hammer which ...
His best-known invention was the Tempest Prognosticator—a weather predicting device also called "The Leech Barometer". [2] It consists of twelve glass bottles containing leeches, which, when disturbed by the atmospheric conditions preceding a storm, climb upwards, triggering a small whalebone hammer which rings a bell.
In about 350 BC, Aristotle described weather patterns in Meteorologica. [3] Later, Theophrastus compiled a book on weather forecasting, called the Book of Signs. [4] Chinese weather prediction lore extends at least as far back as 300 BC, [5] which was also around the same time ancient Indian astronomers developed weather-prediction methods. [6]
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The Kerrison predictor did not calculate fuse settings, as the shells fired by the 40 mm Bofors gun, with which it was designed to work, were contact-fused. [4] The Predictor proved to be able to hit practically anything that flew in a straight line, and it was particularly effective against dive bombers.
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Typically the parameters are estimated and plugged into the predictor, leading to the empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP). Notice that by simply plugging in the estimated parameter into the predictor, additional variability is unaccounted for, leading to overly optimistic prediction variances for the EBLUP. [citation needed]
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