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Many of the volume's chapters address the problem of agency, to which the garbage can model offered a solution based on a temporal, instead of a consequential, ordering of organizational events. [15] Some of the newer models that have been proposed make assumptions returning to a consequential view of decision making, as well as assuming that ...
Individual random events are, by definition, unpredictable, but if there is a known probability distribution, the frequency of different outcomes over repeated events (or "trials") is predictable. [ note 1 ] For example, when throwing two dice , the outcome of any particular roll is unpredictable, but a sum of 7 will tend to occur twice as ...
Deming observed that in any forecasting activity, the population is that of future events while the sampling frame is, inevitably, some subset of historical events. Deming held that the disjoint nature of population and sampling frame was inherently problematic once the existence of special-cause variation was admitted, rejecting the general ...
A numeric sequence is said to be statistically random when it contains no recognizable patterns or regularities; sequences such as the results of an ideal dice roll or the digits of π exhibit statistical randomness. [1] Statistical randomness does not necessarily imply "true" randomness, i.e., objective unpredictability.
Based on the author's criteria: The event is a surprise (to the observer). The event has a major effect. After the first recorded instance of the event, it is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected; that is, the relevant data were available but unaccounted for in risk mitigation programs. The same is true for the personal ...
One simplifying strategy people may rely on is the tendency to make a judgment about the frequency of an event based on how many similar instances are brought to mind. In 1973, Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman first studied this phenomenon and labeled it the "availability heuristic".
Animals have significantly more predictable behavior than humans. Driven by natural selection, animals develop mating calls, predator warnings, and communicative dances. One example of these engrained behaviors is the Belding's ground squirrel, which developed a specific set of calls that warn nearby squirrels about predators.
Organizational patterns are inspired in large part by the principles of the software pattern community, that in turn takes it cues from Christopher Alexander's work on patterns of the built world. [ 1 ] Organizational patterns also have roots in Kroeber 's classic anthropological texts on the patterns that underlie culture and society.