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Normalcy bias, or normality bias, is a cognitive bias which leads people to disbelieve or minimize threat warnings. [1] Consequently, individuals underestimate the likelihood of a disaster, when it might affect them, and its potential adverse effects. [ 2 ]
Normalcy bias, a form of cognitive dissonance, is the refusal to plan for, or react to, a disaster which has never happened before. Effort justification is a person's tendency to attribute greater value to an outcome if they had to put effort into achieving it.
Normality bias, a belief people hold when considering the possibility of a disaster; See also. Normal (disambiguation) Return to normalcy, a campaign slogan
A cognitive bias is a systematic pattern of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment. Individuals create their own "subjective reality" from their perception of the input. Individuals create their own "subjective reality" from their perception of the input.
The Cognitive Bias Codex. A cognitive bias is a systematic pattern of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment. [1] Individuals create their own "subjective reality" from their perception of the input. An individual's construction of reality, not the objective input, may dictate their behavior in the world.
In over-optimism and normalcy bias, people believe that disasters will happen elsewhere, and even if they do happen locally only their neighbors will be affected. [8] Another obstacle to preparedness is the interval between disasters. When there is a long time between disasters, there is less urgency to prepare.
The neglect of probability, a type of cognitive bias, is the tendency to disregard probability when making a decision under uncertainty and is one simple way in which people regularly violate the normative rules for decision making. Small risks are typically either neglected entirely or hugely overrated.
In psychology, the false consensus effect, also known as consensus bias, is a pervasive cognitive bias that causes people to "see their own behavioral choices and judgments as relatively common and appropriate to existing circumstances". [1]