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The Delphi method or Delphi technique (/ ˈ d ɛ l f aɪ / DEL-fy; also known as Estimate-Talk-Estimate or ETE) is a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method that relies on a panel of experts.
Developed by Dalkey, [2] [3] the Delphi method is very similar to the Aggregated Individual Method in that experts make their initial estimates in isolation. However following this stage, the experts are then shown the outcome that all other participants have arrived at and are then able to re-consider the estimates which they initially made.
The Delphi method is a popular technique used in futurology. It was developed by Gordon and Helmer in 1953 at RAND.It can be defined as a method for structuring a group communication process, so that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals, as a whole, to deal with a complex problem.
Three characteristics of Delphi method: (i) Anonymity Since all members of the Group do not meet directly when this approach is used, they communicate by mail, thus eliminating the impact of the authority. This is the main feature of the method. Anonymity is a very important function of Delphi methods. Forecasters don't know each other.
Delphi method is a structured communication technique for groups, originally developed for collaborative forecasting but has also been used for policy making. [43] Dotmocracy is a facilitation method that relies on the use of special forms called Dotmocracy. They are sheets that allows large groups to collectively brainstorm and recognize ...
Real-time Delphi (RTD) is an advanced form of the Delphi method. The advanced method "is a consultative process that uses computer technology " [ 1 ] to increase efficiency of the Delphi process. Definition and idea
Some relevant techniques are brainstorming, the nominal group technique, the Delphi technique, idea/mind mapping, the affinity diagram, and multicriteria decision analysis. [8] These techniques are referenced in the Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge. [9] Group creativity techniques can be used in a sequence; for example: [9]
The Delphi method relies on a panel of experts who reach consensus regarding the MID. The expert panel gets information about the results of a trial. They review it separately and provide their best estimate of the MID. Their responses are averaged, and this summary is sent back with an invitation to revise their estimates.