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Predictive modeling in trading is a modeling process wherein the probability of an outcome is predicted using a set of predictor variables. Predictive models can be built for different assets like stocks, futures, currencies, commodities etc. [ citation needed ] Predictive modeling is still extensively used by trading firms to devise strategies ...
The nature of chaos theory suggests that the predictability of any system is limited because it is impossible to know all of the minutiae of a system at the present time. In principle, the deterministic systems that chaos theory attempts to analyze can be predicted, but uncertainty in a forecast increases exponentially with elapsed time. [2]
Uncertainty management theory (UMT), developed by Dale Brashers, addresses the concept of uncertainty management. Several theories have been developed in an attempt to define uncertainty, identify its effects and establish strategies for managing it. [1] Uncertainty management theory was the first theory to decline the idea that uncertainty is ...
Managerialism is the idea that professional managers should run organizations in line with organizational routines which produce controllable and measurable results. [1] [2] It applies the procedures of running a for-profit business to any organization, with an emphasis on control, [3] accountability, [4] measurement, strategic planning and the micromanagement of staff.
That is, the algorithm for describing these cases is tuned to optimize both the predictability and interpretability by decision-makers. The resulting clusters have many characteristics of scenarios and can be used to help decision-makers understand the vulnerabilities of the proposed policies and potential response options.
The garbage can model (also known as garbage can process, or garbage can theory) describes the chaotic reality of organizational decision making in an organized anarchy. [2] The model originated in the 1972 seminal paper, A Garbage Can Model of Organizational Choice , written by Michael D. Cohen , James G. March , and Johan P. Olsen .
The EMH provides the basic logic for modern risk-based theories of asset prices, and frameworks such as consumption-based asset pricing and intermediary asset pricing can be thought of as the combination of a model of risk with the EMH. [7] Many decades of empirical research on return predictability has found mixed evidence.
The uncertainty theory invented by Baoding Liu [1] is a branch of mathematics based on normality, monotonicity, self-duality, countable subadditivity, and product measure axioms. [ clarification needed ]