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Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Kamala Harris Democratic Donald Trump Republican Others/ Undecided [a]Margin 270toWin [1]: through November 4, 2024
Poll results can be affected by methodology, especially in how they predict who will vote in the next election, and re-weighting answers to compensate for slightly non-random samples. One technique, "weighting on recalled vote" is an attempt to compensate for previous underestimates of votes for Donald Trump by rebalancing the sample based on ...
An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a survey or a poll (although strictly a poll is an actual election), is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or ...
An analysis of 2010 polling by FiveThirtyEight concluded that polls of "registered voters" that year tended to favor Democratic candidates by a factor of five percentage points over the actual results of the election, while polls of "likely voters" tended to favor Republican candidates by a factor of one percentage point over the actual results ...
Chart of Democratic-candidate lead over Republican candidate in final poll and results by year, 1936 to 2016. Gallup was the first polling organization to conduct accurate opinion polling for United States presidential elections.
Results for this simple case are shown in the first table, which is directly comparable with Table 5 (1000 voters, medium dispersion) of the cited paper by Chamberlin and Cohen. The candidates were sampled randomly from the voter distribution and a single Condorcet method ( Minimax ) was included in the trials for confirmation.
The hand count used seven experienced poll workers: one reader with two watchers, and two talliers with two watchers. The results included 46 errors not noticed by the counting team, including: Caller called the wrong candidate, and both watchers failed to notice the incorrect call; Tally markers tried to work out inconsistencies while tallying
The following graph depicts the standing of each candidate in the poll aggregators from September 2019 to November 2020. Former Vice President Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, had an average polling lead of 7.9 percentage points over incumbent President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee. Biden would win the national popular vote by 4.4 ...