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Polling guru Nate Silver has revealed his final prediction model for the 2024 presidential election – and has concluded the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is “literally closer ...
The national polling average released by Silver on Sunday morning showed Harris over Trump 48.5% to 47.6%. But he cautioned his model doesn’t care about the national polls as much at this stage.
During the 2016 election, Silver’s model suggested a likely victory for Hillary Clinton but gave Trump around a 30% chance of winning – much higher than most other prognosticators. Election ...
[3] [104] Silver retained the IP of 538's election forecasting model as he left, [105] and in June 2024, released his own election forecasting model at Silver Bulletin, using methodology similar to his model at 538. [3] [106] In June 2024, Silver joined the prediction market startup Polymarket as an advisor. [4]
Silver’s model predicts that Harris has a 58.9% chance at winning the national popular vote – which has no bearing on the winner of the race – but that Trump will rack up 274 Electoral ...
Nate Silver's The Signal and Noise is an excellent description of how prediction works. However, he purposefully leaves out the mathematics. In 2012, after his triumph of predicting the outcome of the last two presidential elections and selling his "fivethirtyeight" blog to the New York Times, Nate Silver accomplished what is almost impossible.
Founder Nate Silver left in 2023, taking the rights to his forecasting model with him to his website Silver Bulletin. [3] [4] [5] 538's new owner Disney hired G. Elliott Morris to develop a new model. [3] [4] On September 18, 2023, the original website domain at fivethirtyeight.com was closed, and web traffic became redirected to ABC News pages ...
Silver’s election forecast and model showed Vice President Harris beating Trump for the first time since Aug. 28. ... Pollster Nate Silver said that a 50/50 forecast for the presidential ...