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The expected return (or expected gain) on a financial investment is the expected value of its return (of the profit on the investment). It is a measure of the center of the distribution of the random variable that is the return. [1] It is calculated by using the following formula: [] = = where
( ()) is the market premium, the expected excess return of the market portfolio's expected return over the risk-free rate. A derivation [ 14 ] is as follows: (1) The incremental impact on risk and expected return when an additional risky asset, a , is added to the market portfolio, m , follows from the formulae for a two-asset portfolio.
Grinold, Kroner, and Siegel (2011) estimated the inputs to the Grinold and Kroner model and arrived at a then-current equity risk premium estimate between 3.5% and 4%. [2] The equity risk premium is the difference between the expected total return on a capitalization-weighted stock market index and the yield on a riskless government bond (in ...
The x-axis represents the risk (beta), and the y-axis represents the expected return. The market risk premium is determined from the slope of the SML. The relationship between β and required return is plotted on the security market line (SML), which shows expected return as a function of β.
An investor who is highly risk averse will hold a portfolio on the lower left hand of the frontier, and an investor who isn’t too risk averse will choose a portfolio on the upper portion of the frontier. Figure 2: Risk-return indifference curves. Figure 2 shows the risk-return indifference curve for the investors.
The risk-free rate has zero risk (most modern major governments will inflate and monetise their debts rather than default upon them), but the return is positive because there is still both the time-preference and inflation premium components of minimum expected rates of return that must be met or exceeded if the funding is to be forthcoming ...
E(R i) is an expected return on security E(R M) is an expected return on market portfolio M β is a nondiversifiable or systematic risk R M is a market rate of return R f is a risk-free rate. When used in portfolio management, the SML represents the investment's opportunity cost (investing in a combination of the market portfolio and the risk ...
According to this model, the return of any stock can be decomposed into the expected excess return of the individual stock due to firm-specific factors, commonly denoted by its alpha coefficient (α), the return due to macroeconomic events that affect the market, and the unexpected microeconomic events that affect only the firm.