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The Newton–Pepys problem is a probability problem concerning the probability of throwing sixes from a certain number of dice. [1] In 1693 Samuel Pepys and Isaac Newton corresponded over a problem posed to Pepys by a school teacher named John Smith. [2] The problem was: Which of the following three propositions has the greatest chance of success?
Bob wants to guess the maximal number with the highest possible probability, while Alice's goal is to keep this probability as low as possible. The difference with the basic secretary problem are two: Alice does not have to write numbers uniformly at random. She may write them according to any joint probability distribution to trick Bob.
Distribution of the 2898 answers to 1983 tie breaker Jeux et Stratégie contest. Alain Ledoux is the founding father of the "guess 2 / 3 of the average" game. In 1981, Ledoux used this game as a tie breaker in his French magazine Jeux et Stratégie. He asked about 4,000 readers, who reached the same number of points in previous puzzles ...
What is the probability of winning the car by switching given the player has picked door 1 and the host has opened door 3? The answer to the first question is 2 / 3 , as is shown correctly by the "simple" solutions. But the answer to the second question is now different: the conditional probability the car is behind door 1 or door 2 ...
Probability distribution of the length of the longest cycle of a random permutation of the numbers 1 to 100. The green area corresponds to the survival probability of the prisoners. In the initial problem, the 100 prisoners are successful if the longest cycle of the permutation has a length of at most 50.
The National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME), founded in 1915, is a United States non-profit which develops and manages assessments of student physicians. Known for its role in developing the United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) in partnership with the Federation of State Medical Boards (FSMB), USMLE examinations for medical students and residents are used by medical licensing ...
The maximum likelihood estimator selects the parameter value which gives the observed data the largest possible probability (or probability density, in the continuous case). If the parameter consists of a number of components, then we define their separate maximum likelihood estimators, as the corresponding component of the MLE of the complete ...
The quadratic scoring rule is a strictly proper scoring rule (,) = = =where is the probability assigned to the correct answer and is the number of classes.. The Brier score, originally proposed by Glenn W. Brier in 1950, [4] can be obtained by an affine transform from the quadratic scoring rule.
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