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The Federal Reserve Bank of New York regularly attempts to calculate the probability of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months using the difference between the 10-year and three-month Treasury ...
The Fed doesn't want to cause a recession by leaving rates too high for too long, which is why it cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points in September, followed by another 25 basis points in ...
For much of the last two years, the 2-year US Treasury yield has traded above the 10-year yield. When that happens, it historically has meant a recession is looming.
In situations when this gap increases (e.g. 20-year Treasury yield rises much higher than the three-month Treasury yield), the economy is expected to improve quickly in the future. This type of curve can be seen at the beginning of an economic expansion (or after the end of a recession).
The Treasury market is sending its sharpest warning about recession risks since 1981. On Tuesday, the difference in the yield on 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes further inverted, with the yield ...
The 1948 recession was a brief economic downturn; forecasters of the time expected much worse, perhaps influenced by the poor economy in their recent lifetimes. [62] The recession also followed a period of monetary tightening. [40] Recession of 1953: July 1953 – May 1954 10 months 3 years 9 months 6.1% (September 1954) −2.6%
December 1, 2008: The NBER announced the US was in a recession and had been since December 2007. The Dow tumbled 679.95 points or 7.8% on the news. [171] [95] December 6, 2008: The 2008 Greek riots began, sparked in part by economic conditions in the country. [citation needed] December 16, 2008: The federal funds rate was lowered to zero ...
The inverted yield curve indicator, which occurs when the yield on three-month Treasury bills exceeds the yield on 10-year notes, is a perfect 8-for-8 in preceding every recession since World War II.