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In time series analysis (or forecasting) — as conducted in statistics, signal processing, and many other fields — the innovation is the difference between the observed value of a variable at time t and the optimal forecast of that value based on information available prior to time t.
Ideally, unevenly spaced time series are analyzed in their unaltered form. However, most of the basic theory for time series analysis was developed at a time when limitations in computing resources favored an analysis of equally spaced data, since in this case efficient linear algebra routines can be used and many problems have an explicit ...
Bayesian experimental design provides a general probability-theoretical framework from which other theories on experimental design can be derived. It is based on Bayesian inference to interpret the observations/data acquired during the experiment. This allows accounting for both any prior knowledge on the parameters to be determined as well as ...
A bootstrap paradox, also known as an information loop, an information paradox, [6] an ontological paradox, [7] or a "predestination paradox" is a paradox of time travel that occurs when any event, such as an action, information, an object, or a person, ultimately causes itself, as a consequence of either retrocausality or time travel.
Interrupted time series design is the design of experiments based on the interrupted time series approach. The method is used in various areas of research, such as: political science : impact of changes in laws on the behavior of people; [ 2 ] (e.g., Effectiveness of sex offender registration policies in the United States )
The latter is far from optimal, but the former, which changes only one variable at a time, is worse. See also the factorial experimental design methods pioneered by Sir Ronald A. Fisher. Reasons for disfavoring OFAT include: OFAT requires more runs for the same precision in effect estimation; OFAT cannot estimate interactions
In the statistical theory of the design of experiments, blocking is the arranging of experimental units that are similar to one another in groups (blocks) based on one or more variables. These variables are chosen carefully to minimize the affect of their variability on the observed outcomes.
This is an important technique for all types of time series analysis, especially for seasonal adjustment. [2] It seeks to construct, from an observed time series, a number of component series (that could be used to reconstruct the original by additions or multiplications) where each of these has a certain characteristic or type of behavior.