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However, the conclusion that the sun is equally likely to rise as it is to not rise is only absurd when additional information is known, such as the laws of gravity and the sun's history. Similar applications of the concept are effectively instances of circular reasoning , with "equally likely" events being assigned equal probabilities, which ...
For example, when tossing an ordinary coin, one typically assumes that the outcomes "head" and "tail" are equally likely to occur. An implicit assumption that all outcomes are equally likely underpins most randomization tools used in common games of chance (e.g. rolling dice, shuffling cards, spinning tops or wheels, drawing lots, etc.).
This is true even if the die is biased so that 6 and 'not 6' are equally likely to occur (equiprobability). The Principle of Indifference of Laplace states that equipossible alternatives may be accorded equal probabilities if nothing more is known about the underlying probability distribution. However, it is a matter of contention whether the ...
The lack of appropriate WEPs would lead to confusion about the likelihood of an attack and to guessing about the period in which it was likely to occur. The language used in the memo lacks words of estimative probability that reduce uncertainty, thus preventing the President and his decisionmakers from implementing measures directed at stopping ...
This is not the only way probabilistic statements are used in ordinary human language: when people say that "it will probably rain", they typically do not mean that the outcome of rain versus not-rain is a random factor that the odds currently favor; instead, such statements are perhaps better understood as qualifying their expectation of rain ...
In nature, events rarely occur with a frequency that is known a priori, so observing outcomes to determine which events are more probable makes sense. However, it is fallacious to apply this logic to systems designed and known to make all outcomes equally likely, such as shuffled cards, dice, and roulette wheels.
Due to the availability heuristic, names that are more easily available are more likely to be recalled, and can thus alter judgments of probability. [31] Another example of the availability heuristic and exemplars would be seeing a shark in the ocean. Seeing a shark has a greater impact on an individual's memory than seeing a dolphin.
This means that people are, effectively, given their status as a result of the group into which they are born, rather than earning it entirely on merit. [13] Ascriptive qualities such as race/ethnicity, gender, and class of origin can all affect one's life chances. In all societies parents pass on whatever advantages and disadvantages they have ...