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Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
That undershoot of 3 points follows polls in 2020 that underestimated Trump's national margin by 4 points and in 2016 that underestimated his performance by 2 points, according to 538's averages.
Polls have closed in some states and the first results are coming in in the high-stakes presidential match-up between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. According to ...
Trump +2.8% Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Local regression of two-way polling between Trump, Biden and Kennedy conducted up to the 2024 United States presidential election (excludes others and undecided ).
Just before Election Day, national polls indicate a tight presidential race. How accurate are the polls, and when will we know who won?
Former Vice President Joe Biden had been leading in most national polls, but President Donald Trump believed that the polls would underestimate him again. Although the polls had underestimated Trump's strength nationally and in Ohio, Florida, and Iowa, Biden won back the blue Midwestern states and made inroads in the Sun Belt to win the election.
ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls 47.1% to Trump 44.4% compared to one week ago - Harris 47.1% to Trump at 43.9% and ... These numbers were reflected as of Tuesday ...
Harris lead has shrunk since last week's polls results. 270towin shows Harris leading the national polls by 0.7% over Trump while in the Pennsylvania poll Trump leads ... These numbers were ...