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P 0 = P(0) is the initial population size, r = the population growth rate, which Ronald Fisher called the Malthusian parameter of population growth in The Genetical Theory of Natural Selection, [2] and Alfred J. Lotka called the intrinsic rate of increase, [3] [4] t = time. The model can also be written in the form of a differential equation:
Using these techniques, Malthus' population principle of growth was later transformed into a mathematical model known as the logistic equation: = (), where N is the population size, r is the intrinsic rate of natural increase, and K is the carrying capacity of the population.
The standard logistic function is the logistic function with parameters =, =, =, which yields = + = + = / / + /.In practice, due to the nature of the exponential function, it is often sufficient to compute the standard logistic function for over a small range of real numbers, such as a range contained in [−6, +6], as it quickly converges very close to its saturation values of 0 and 1.
Thomas Malthus was one of the first to note that populations grew with a geometric pattern while contemplating the fate of humankind. [3] One of the most basic and milestone models of population growth was the logistic model of population growth formulated by Pierre François Verhulst in 1838.
The form is similar to the Lotka–Volterra equations for predation in that the equation for each species has one term for self-interaction and one term for the interaction with other species. In the equations for predation, the base population model is exponential. For the competition equations, the logistic equation is the basis.
Under the logistic model, population growth rate between these two limits is most often assumed to be sigmoidal (Figure 1). There is scientific evidence that some populations do grow in a logistic fashion towards a stable equilibrium – a commonly cited example is the logistic growth of yeast. The equation describing logistic growth is: [13]
The generalized logistic function or curve is an extension of the logistic or sigmoid functions. Originally developed for growth modelling, it allows for more flexible S-shaped curves. The function is sometimes named Richards's curve after F. J. Richards, who proposed the general form for the family of models in 1959.
Verhulst developed the logistic function in a series of three papers between 1838 and 1847, based on research on modeling population growth that he conducted in the mid 1830s, under the guidance of Adolphe Quetelet; see Logistic function § History for details. [1] Verhulst published in Verhulst (1838) the equation: