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Interest rate parity is a no-arbitrage condition representing an equilibrium state under which investors compare interest rates available on bank deposits in two countries. [1] The fact that this condition does not always hold allows for potential opportunities to earn riskless profits from covered interest arbitrage .
The formal model underlying the hypothesis is the uncovered Interest Rate Parity condition which states that in absence of a risk premium, arbitrage will ensure that the depreciation or appreciation of a country's currency vis-à-vis another will be equal to the nominal interest rate differential between them. Since under a peg, i.e. a fixed ...
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The dollar deposit interest rate is 3.4% in the United States, while the euro deposit rate is 4.6% in the euro area. The current spot exchange rate is 1.2730 $/€. For simplicity, the example ignores compounding interest. Investing US$5,000,000 domestically at 3.4% for six months ignoring compounding, will result in a future value of US$5,170,000.
The forward exchange rate depends on three known variables: the spot exchange rate, the domestic interest rate, and the foreign interest rate. This effectively means that the forward rate is the price of a forward contract, which derives its value from the pricing of spot contracts and the addition of information on available interest rates. [4]
The key features of the model include the assumptions that goods' prices are sticky, or slow to change, in the short run, but the prices of currencies are flexible, that arbitrage in asset markets holds, via the uncovered interest parity equation, and that expectations of exchange rate changes are "consistent": that is, rational.
The effect estimates future exchange rates based on the relationship between nominal interest rates. Multiplying the current spot exchange rate by the nominal annual U.S. interest rate and dividing by the nominal annual U.K. interest rate yields the estimate of the spot exchange rate 12 months from now:
A more recent extension for handling cluster volatility, negative interest rates and different distributions is the so-called "CIR #" by Orlando, Mininni and Bufalo (2018, [5] 2019, [6] [7] 2020, [8] 2021, [9] 2023 [10]) and a simpler extension focussing on negative interest rates was proposed by Di Francesco and Kamm (2021, [11] 2022 [12 ...