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Inverse probability weighting is a statistical technique for estimating quantities related to a population other than the one from which the data was collected. Study designs with a disparate sampling population and population of target inference (target population) are common in application. [ 1 ]
The method of inverse probability (assigning a probability distribution to an unobserved variable) is called Bayesian probability, the distribution of data given the unobserved variable is the likelihood function (which does not by itself give a probability distribution for the parameter), and the distribution of an unobserved variable, given ...
In statistics, the Horvitz–Thompson estimator, named after Daniel G. Horvitz and Donovan J. Thompson, [1] is a method for estimating the total [2] and mean of a pseudo-population in a stratified sample by applying inverse probability weighting to account for the difference in the sampling distribution between the collected data and the a target population.
For normally distributed random variables inverse-variance weighted averages can also be derived as the maximum likelihood estimate for the true value. Furthermore, from a Bayesian perspective the posterior distribution for the true value given normally distributed observations and a flat prior is a normal distribution with the inverse-variance weighted average as a mean and variance ().
inverse-variance weighting, also known as analytic weights, [24] is when each element is assigned a weight that is the inverse of its (known) variance. [ 25 ] [ 9 ] : 187 When all elements have the same expectancy, using such weights for calculating weighted averages has the least variance among all weighted averages.
Expected Utility Theory (EUT) poses a utility calculation linearly combining weights and values of the probabilities associated with various outcomes. By presuming that decision-makers themselves incorporate an accurate weighting of probabilities into calculating expected values for their decision-making, EUT assumes that people's subjective probability-weighting matches objective probability ...
Ways to account for the random sampling include conditional logistic regression, [5] and using inverse probability weighting to adjust for missing covariates among those who are not selected into the study. [2]
Also, the value of probability = 0.99 is much less than the value of probability = 1, a sure thing (probability = 0.99 is under-weighted). A little more in depth when looking at probability distortion is that π(p) + π(1 − p) < 1 (where π(p) is probability in prospect theory). [8]