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Weather reconnaissance aircraft, such as this WP-3D Orion, provide data that is then used in numerical weather forecasts.. The atmosphere is a fluid.As such, the idea of numerical weather prediction is to sample the state of the fluid at a given time and use the equations of fluid dynamics and thermodynamics to estimate the state of the fluid at some time in the future.
The Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM), often known as the CMC model in North America, is an integrated forecasting and data assimilation system developed in the Recherche en Prévision Numérique (RPN), Meteorological Research Branch (MRB), and the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC).
The mathematical model is run four times a day, and produces forecasts for up to 16 days in advance, but with decreased spatial resolution after 10 days. The forecast skill generally decreases with time (as with any numerical weather prediction model) and for longer term forecasts, only the larger scales retain significant accuracy.
These models typically require far less compute than physics-based models. [81] Microsoft's Aurora system offers global 10-day weather and 5-day air pollution (CO 2, NO, NO 2, SO 2, O 3, and particulates) forecasts with claimed accuracy similar to physics-based models, but at orders-of-magnitude lower cost. Aurora was trained on more than a ...
These statistical models are collectively referred to as model output statistics (MOS), [76] and were developed by the National Weather Service for their suite of weather forecasting models by 1976. [77] The United States Air Force developed its own set of MOS based upon their dynamical weather model by 1983. [78]
"A good use of the AI-based weather forecasts would be to complement and enhance our forecasting toolbox, perhaps by allowing us to produce larger ensembles of forecasts that enable accurate ...
A numerical weather model must accurately model both the seasonal cycle and (if finely resolved enough) the diurnal cycle. This output, however, adds no information content, since the same cycles are easily predicted from climatological data. Climatological cycles may be removed from both the model output and the "truth" data.
All of the models use varying resolutions of topography with greater accuracy at higher resolutions. The limiting factor with all models is that for a weather event to be recorded by the model it must be at least three grid points in size. Thus for the global model at 40 km, a weather system must be at least 120 km to be modelled.