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Most election predictors for the 2020 United States presidential election used: Tossup: No advantage; Tilt: Advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean" Lean: Slight advantage; Likely: Significant, but surmountable, advantage (highest rating given by CBS News and NPR) Safe or solid: Near-certain chance of victory
[1] [2] Gallup polling has often been accurate in predicting the outcome of presidential elections and the margin of victory for the winner. [3] However, it missed some close elections: 1948, 1976 and 2004, the popular vote in 2000, and the likely-voter numbers in 2012. [ 3 ]
The Keys to the White House, also known as the 13 keys, is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States.It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapting methods that Keilis-Borok designed for earthquake prediction.
Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
The latest polling analysis from 538 gave Trump a 53-in-100 chance of winning the election versus 47 out of 100 for Kamala Harris. It also gave Republicans an 87-in-100 chance of taking the Senate ...
PHOTO: A graph that shows how Wisconsin was a blue state for decades but in recent elections, 2016 and 2020, it got closer to voting for the Republican candidate.
This is a list of nationwide public opinion polls that were conducted relating to the general election for the 2020 United States presidential election.If multiple versions of polls are provided, the version among likely voters (LV) is prioritized, then registered voters (RV), then adults (A).
The incumbent president is Donald Trump, who assumed office on January 20, 2025. [ 5 ] [ 6 ] Since the office was established in 1789, 45 men have served in 47 presidencies; the discrepancy arises from two individuals elected to non-consecutive terms: Grover Cleveland is counted as the 22nd and 24th president of the United States, while Donald ...