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Precision and recall. In statistical analysis of binary classification and information retrieval systems, the F-score or F-measure is a measure of predictive performance. It is calculated from the precision and recall of the test, where the precision is the number of true positive results divided by the number of all samples predicted to be positive, including those not identified correctly ...
The Keys to the White House, also known as the 13 keys, is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States.It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapting methods that Keilis-Borok designed for earthquake prediction.
That is, a prediction of 80% that correctly proved true would receive a score of ln(0.8) = −0.22. This same prediction also assigns 20% likelihood to the opposite case, and so if the prediction proves false, it would receive a score based on the 20%: ln(0.2) = −1.6. The goal of a forecaster is to maximize the score and for the score to be ...
BOWL PROJECTIONS: College Football Playoff, New Year's Six predictions after Week 11 Kentucky (-1.5) at South Carolina Kevin Brockway, The Gainesville Sun: South Carolina wins 35-30 in an upset
Statistical Football prediction is a method used in sports betting, to predict the outcome of football matches by means of statistical tools. The goal of statistical match prediction is to outperform the predictions of bookmakers [ citation needed ] [ dubious – discuss ] , who use them to set odds on the outcome of football matches.
If 2000 people are tested and the prevalence (in the sample) is 50%, 1000 of them are sick and 1000 of them are healthy. Thus about 990 true positives and 990 true negatives are likely, with 10 false positives and 10 false negatives. The positive and negative prediction values would be 99%, so there can be high confidence in the result.
A person's true score is defined as the expected number-correct score over an infinite number of independent administrations of the test. Unfortunately, test users never observe a person's true score, only an observed score, X. It is assumed that observed score = true score plus some error:
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