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Suppose the current spot exchange rate between the United States and the United Kingdom is 1.4339 GBP/USD. Also suppose the current interest rates are 5 percent in the U.S. and 7 percent in the U.K. What is the expected spot exchange rate 12 months from now according to the international Fisher effect?
The spot exchange rate is the current exchange rate, while the forward exchange rate is an exchange rate that is quoted and traded today but for delivery and payment on a specific future date. In the retail currency exchange market, different buying and selling rates will be quoted by money dealers. Most trades are to or from the local currency.
The exchange rate at which the transaction is done is called the spot exchange rate. As of 2010, the average daily turnover of global FX spot transactions reached nearly US$1.5 trillion, counting 37.4% of all foreign exchange transactions. [ 1 ]
If these two returns weren't equalized by the use of a forward contract, there would be a potential arbitrage opportunity in which, for example, an investor could borrow currency in the country with the lower interest rate, convert to the foreign currency at today's spot exchange rate, and invest in the foreign country with the higher interest ...
(+) is the expected future spot exchange rate at time t + k k is the number of periods into the future from time t S t is the current spot exchange rate at time t i $ is the interest rate in one country (for example, the United States) i c is the interest rate in another country or currency area (for example, the Eurozone)
The current spot exchange rate is 1.2730 $/€ and the six-month forward exchange rate is 1.3000 $/€. For simplicity, the example ignores compounding interest. Investing US$5,000,000 domestically at 3.4% for six months ignoring compounding, will result in a future value of US$5,085,000.
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The dollar deposit interest rate is 3.4% in the United States, while the euro deposit rate is 4.6% in the euro area. The current spot exchange rate is 1.2730 $/€. For simplicity, the example ignores compounding interest. Investing US$5,000,000 domestically at 3.4% for six months ignoring compounding, will result in a future value of US$5,170,000.