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Animals have significantly more predictable behavior than humans. Driven by natural selection, animals develop mating calls, predator warnings, and communicative dances. One example of these engrained behaviors is the Belding's ground squirrel, which developed a specific set of calls that warn nearby squirrels about predators.
Hindsight bias, also known as the knew-it-all-along phenomenon [1] or creeping determinism, [2] is the common tendency for people to perceive past events as having been more predictable than they were.
A prediction of this kind might be informed by a predicting person's abductive reasoning, inductive reasoning, deductive reasoning, and experience; and may be useful—if the predicting person is a knowledgeable person in the field. [2] The Delphi method is a technique for eliciting such expert-judgement-based predictions in a controlled way.
These things theoretically factor into significant personality changes as one progresses through adolescence. As a person progresses through adulthood, their personality becomes more stable and predictable because they establish patterns of thinking, behaving, and feeling. [34] Personality does not stop changing at a specific age.
Trait ascription bias, the tendency for people to view themselves as relatively variable in terms of personality, behavior, and mood while viewing others as much more predictable. Third-person effect , a tendency to believe that mass-communicated media messages have a greater effect on others than on themselves.
Former OpenAI chief scientist Ilya Sutskever, one of the biggest names in artificial intelligence, had a prediction to make on Friday: reasoning capabilities will make technology far less predictable.
Trait ascription and the cognitive bias associated with it have been a topic of active research for more than three decades. [2] [3] Like many other cognitive biases, trait ascription bias is supported by a substantial body of experimental research and has been explained in terms of numerous theoretical frameworks originating in various disciplines.
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