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Anthropic arguments FHI has studied include the doomsday argument, which claims that humanity is likely to go extinct soon because it is unlikely that one is observing a point in human history that is extremely early. Instead, present-day humans are likely to be near the middle of the distribution of humans that will ever live. [14]
The Global Challenges Foundation's 2016 annual report estimates an annual probability of human extinction of at least 0.05% per year (equivalent to 5% per century, on average). [30] As of February 11, 2025, Metaculus users estimate a 0.6% probability of human extinction by 2100. [31]
That scenario, he concludes, is extremely unlikely. He also considers transhumanism, the Voluntary Human Extinction Movement, the Church of Euthanasia and John A. Leslie's The End of the World: the Science and Ethics of Human Extinction. [28] Weisman concludes the book considering a new version of the one-child policy.
Humans will soon go extinct unless we can find 5 more earths. We’re basically in the days of the dinosaurs, according to Stanford scientists.
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An uncertain factor is the influence of human technology such as climate engineering, [2] which could cause significant changes to the planet. [3] [4] For example, the current Holocene extinction [5] is being caused by technology, [6] and the effects may last for up to five million years. [7]
Assume, for simplicity, that the total number of humans who will ever be born is 60 billion (N 1), or 6,000 billion (N 2). [6]If there is no prior knowledge of the position that a currently living individual, X, has in the history of humanity, one may instead compute how many humans were born before X, and arrive at say 59,854,795,447, which would necessarily place X among the first 60 billion ...
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