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David Harville first developed the model in a 1973 paper on horse racing; [2] in 1987, Mason Malmuth independently rediscovered it for poker. [3] In the ICM, all players have comparable skill, so that current stack sizes entirely determine the probability distribution for a player's final ranking.
Example of the optimal Kelly betting fraction, versus expected return of other fractional bets. In probability theory, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet) is a formula for sizing a sequence of bets by maximizing the long-term expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the long-term expected geometric growth rate.
For example, a wheel bet of "3-all" in a given race picks the #3 horse to win, and any other horse in the field to finish second (each permutation being a single bet - thus, in this example, if there are 5 horses in the field, a "3-all wheel" would 4 bets). Quinella or Quiniela: [a] the bettor must pick the two horses that finish first and ...
Trifecta. A trifecta is a parimutuel bet placed on a horse race in which the bettor must predict which horses will finish first, second, and third, in the exact order. [1] Known as a trifecta in the US and Australia, [2] this is known as a tricast in the UK, [3] a tierce in Hong Kong, [4] a triactor in Canada [5] and a tiercé in France. [6]
A study on soccer betting found that the probability for the home team to win was generally about 3.4% less than the value calculated from the odds (for example, 46.6% for even odds). It was about 3.7% less for wins by the visitors, and 5.7% less for draws. [14] To understand roulette probabilities and calculate them, you need to know the formula.
A handicap race in horse racing is a race in which horses carry different weights, allocated by the handicapper. A better horse will carry a heavier weight, to give him or her a disadvantage when racing against slower horses. The handicapper's goal in assigning handicap weights is to enable all the horses to finish together (in a dead heat).
Decimal odds are a single value, greater than 1, representing the amount to be paid out for each unit bet. For example, a bet of £40 at 6 − 4 (fractional odds) will pay out £40 + £60 = £100. The equivalent decimal odds are 2.5; £40 × 2.5 = £100. We can convert fractional to decimal odds by the formula D = (b + a) ⁄ b.
In Betting Thoroughbreds, Steve Davidowitz claimed that (in 1974), "the top-figure horse wins 35 percent of the time, at a slight loss for every $2.00 wagered." This is an example of using the top figure as a "power rating," or singular measure of a horse's ability. In horse racing, power ratings are generally called class ratings.