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The successful prediction of a stock's future price could yield significant profit. The efficient market hypothesis suggests that stock prices reflect all currently available information and any price changes that are not based on newly revealed information thus are inherently unpredictable. Others disagree and those with this viewpoint possess ...
A financial forecast is an estimate of future financial outcomes for a company or project, usually applied in budgeting, capital budgeting and / or valuation.Depending on context, the term may also refer to listed company (quarterly) earnings guidance.
Stock valuation is the method of calculating theoretical values of companies and their stocks.The main use of these methods is to predict future market prices, or more generally, potential market prices, and thus to profit from price movement – stocks that are judged undervalued (with respect to their theoretical value) are bought, while stocks that are judged overvalued are sold, in the ...
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In Graham's words: "Our study of the various methods has led us to suggest a foreshortened and quite simple formula for the evaluation of growth stocks, which is intended to produce figures fairly close to those resulting from the more refined mathematical calculations."
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The Black formula is similar to the Black–Scholes formula for valuing stock options except that the spot price of the underlying is replaced by a discounted futures price F. Suppose there is constant risk-free interest rate r and the futures price F(t) of a particular underlying is log-normal with constant volatility σ.