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A black swan (Cygnus atratus) in Australia. The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on a Latin expression which presumed that black swans did ...
This is the problem of induction. Suppose we want to put the hypothesis that all swans are white to the test. We come across a white swan. We cannot validly argue (or induce) from "here is a white swan" to "all swans are white"; doing so would require a logical fallacy such as, for example, affirming the consequent. [3]
Informally, a statement is falsifiable if some observation might show it to be false. For example, "All swans are white" is falsifiable because "Here is a black swan" shows it to be false. The apparent contradiction seen in the case of a true but falsifiable statement disappears once we know the technical definition.
A perfect storm led to Bayesian sinking, experts say. The combination of unlikely factors that could have contributed to the ship's fate constituted a "black swan event," Matthew Schanck, chairman ...
A faulty generalization is an informal fallacy wherein a conclusion is drawn about all or many instances of a phenomenon on the basis of one or a few instances of that phenomenon. It is similar to a proof by example in mathematics. [1] It is an example of jumping to conclusions. [2]
The book asserts that a "Black Swan" event depends on the observer: for example, what may be a Black Swan surprise for a turkey is not a Black Swan surprise for its butcher. Hence the objective should be to "avoid being the turkey", by identifying areas of vulnerability in order to "turn the Black Swans white".
Such events have been referred to as "grey swans" by Taleb. A more rigorous distinction between black swans, grey swans, and dragon kings is difficult as black swans are not precisely defined in physical and mathematical terms. However, technical elaboration of concepts in the Black Swan book are elaborated in the Silent Risk document. An ...
White privilege means not having nearly every deck of cards stacked against you from the moment you’re born, just because you happen to be a certain race. 10 Everyday Examples of the Glaring ...